LQ & Shift-Share Analysis
NAICS-based economic base study for a San Diego submarket, using location quotient and shift-share outputs to identify target industries and support planning memo recommendations.
The file, at a glance.
Four numbers carry the weight of this file — the same vitals an investment committee reads first.
What went into this file.
The same two-ledger standard as an institutional package: the analysis and design work on the left, the financial modeling and deliverables on the right.
- Location quotient analysis by industry sector
- Shift-share decomposition of employment growth
- Regional benchmark comparison
- Target industry identification
- Planning implications for land use strategy
- Economic base analysis workbook
- LQ and shift-share tables
- Industry opportunity summary
- Planning memo recommendations
- Source documentation
Every file is built the same way.
Different asset, same discipline. Each project in this portfolio moves through four gates before it earns a recommendation.
Intake & context.
Zoning, site constraints, demographics, and submarket dynamics — the facts that decide what's possible before a single number is modeled.
Model everything.
A full proforma: acquisition or development cash flows, financing assumptions, and hold-period returns — IRR, cash-on-cash, equity multiple.
Pressure-test.
Cap rate sensitivity, vacancy downside, exit scenarios. A model is only useful once it has been argued with.
Package the decision.
An investor-ready document: the analysis, the numbers, and a clear recommendation — hold, build, reposition, or walk.
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More from the portfolio.
Same discipline, different asset class — pick the next file.