When the next deal needs to pencil cleaner than the last one.
A deal that looked fine at acquisition can become a deal that doesn't refinance — because exit caps shift, rents miss the proforma, or the rate at year five lands 100 basis points higher. The cost of bad underwriting shows up later. The fix is upstream: a 10-year DCF, sensitivity tables, and a model that survives the downside.
Five stages of analysis. The same framework institutional investors use.
Every stage is more decision-relevant than the last. Watch the model build as you scroll through each one ↓
Stage 1 — Stabilized proforma & simple ratios
A clean year-one proforma: gross scheduled rent → vacancy → operating expenses → NOI → debt service → before-tax cash flow. Outputs the four back-of-the-envelope ratios — cap rate, cash-on-cash, DSCR, break-even occupancy. This is the screen. If a deal doesn't pencil at Stage 1, it usually doesn't pencil at Stage 2.
Stage 2 — Multi-year DCF
A 10-year DCF on the operating period. Year-by-year revenue and expense growth, NOI, debt service, before-tax cash flow, principal paydown, and a year-10 sale at forecasted exit cap. Outputs unleveraged IRR, leveraged IRR, after-tax IRR, NPV, equity multiple. Stage 2 is the most important of the five.
Stage 3 — Development + operating (value-add)
For value-add or development plays, Stage 3 stitches the construction / repositioning period onto the front of the operating proforma. Year 0 acquisition + CapEx, Year 1 lease-up, Year 2+ stabilized. The IRR on a value-add deal isn't the same as the IRR on a stabilized deal — Stage 3 captures the full arc.
Stage 4 — Monthly cash flow during execution
For deals with active CapEx or development components, a monthly model during the execution period — equity draws, construction draws, interest reserves, monthly burn. This is what your lender will want to see before they fund. It also tells us whether your reserves are actually sized correctly.
Stage 5 — DCF for partners (JV waterfall)
If the deal involves a partner — passive equity, family, or a JV structure — Stage 5 splits the cash flows under the partnership terms. Preferred returns, capital recovery, profit splits at hurdle rates. Each partner gets their own IRR and equity multiple. If you've taken in passive capital without modeling Stage 5, you don't actually know what you've promised them.
Where the underwriting comes from.
My UC San Diego program in Real Estate & Development was project-based. Every course tied to actual properties, actual investors, actual financial models.
3.05-Acre Multifamily Offering Memorandum
Senior capstone — full Offering Memorandum on a 3.05-acre San Diego site presented to industry judges at UCSD Urban Planning EXPO. Zoning rezone (RS-1-7 → RM-4-10), demographics through 2035, 10-year proforma, IRR / cash-on-cash / equity multiple. 30-page investor-ready OM.
14-Unit acquisition underwrite
Full acquisition workup on a 14-unit value-add property: 10-year proforma, CapEx schedule, exit modeling. Stage 2 + Stage 3. Output: 6% cash-on-cash, 14% levered return, 12% IRR, 2× equity multiple. The way real value-add deals get underwritten.
Three institutional structures
311-unit highrise (10% pref, 60/40 GP/LP). 256-bed student housing (8% pref, 50/50 post-pref). 925 B St 64K SF office acquisition JV (20/80 GP/LP). Stage 5 analysis on real institutional capital structures.
Three generations of ownership
22+ years of family operations in Tijuana. Acquisition, construction, leasing, sale, repeat. Including a commercial development that misread its market and got partially redeveloped to residential. Numbers come first. The story comes second.
Underwriting isn't a one-time event. It's iterative.
The model gets updated at every checkpoint — not because something was wrong before, but because information sharpens with each pass.
Before the earnest money contract
First pass — listing rents, listed expenses, market cap, your loan terms. If it doesn't clear your hurdle rate at Stage 1, we don't write the offer.
Before approaching lenders
Updated with verified rent roll, T-12 financials from the seller, refined OpEx assumptions. The version that goes into your lender's underwriting package — and that they will sensitivity-test for DSCR.
Before "going hard" on the contract
After due diligence: inspection results, lease audits, CapEx surprises. Once you remove contingencies, the deposit is at risk. We don't go hard until the model survives every assumption update due diligence produced.
For an equity raise or partner
Stage 5 waterfall — what each side actually receives at base, downside, and upside. Partners deserve to see the math before they wire.
Knowing the answer at one assumption set isn't underwriting.
A single proforma gives you a single answer. The real question is how that answer moves when the underlying assumptions move. On every deal, I run sensitivity tables on the variables that actually drive returns.
IRR sensitivity to exit cap rate
A 50-basis-point change in the year-10 cap can swing IRR by several hundred basis points. Most acquisition mistakes are exit-cap mistakes. The sensitivity table tells you where on that curve your deal lives.
Cash-on-cash vs. rent growth assumptions
If the proforma needs 4% annual rent growth to clear your hurdle and the submarket has averaged 2.5%, you have a problem. The table shows it before you sign.
DSCR at refinance — rate sensitivity
Most acquisitions assume a refi at year 5–7. DSCR at refinance is highly sensitive to the rate at that point. "Will this deal qualify for the refi if rates are 100 bps higher?" — every acquisition needs to answer this.
Operating vs. disposition returns
A 15% IRR can be 15% from operations and 0% from sale — or 5% from operations and 10% from sale. Partitioning the IRR tells you which lever your return is actually pulling on.
Comparable underwrites compared
Choosing between two live opportunities? Same model, same assumptions, same sensitivities, same outputs. Now you're actually comparing — not one full underwrite against a cap-rate flyer.
Development upside — modeled, not hand-waved
If a property has SB 9 / ADU / Density Bonus potential, that upside gets its own Stage 3 proforma — feasibility cost, construction budget, lease-up timeline, refi into permanent. "Has development upside" is a sales pitch. Modeled upside is a number.
What most brokers won't do — that I will.
If you're scaling, you already have a broker. The question is what someone else does that they don't. Four things, specifically.
Every deal — not just the ones that close.
Most brokers bring you OMs and let you figure out whether the deal pencils. I run the full Stage 1 + Stage 2 model on every property worth considering, including the ones we walk away from. The deal you don't pursue saves more money than the deal you do.
Development upside, modeled.
On every acquisition I check what's possible under SB 9, ADU law, the State Density Bonus, and SB 1123. If the property has it, I run it as Stage 3. Most brokers don't. The properties where it matters most are usually priced as if it doesn't exist.
Partner deals, structured properly.
If your next deal involves passive equity or a JV, Stage 5 maps the cash flows under your specific waterfall — pref returns, capital recovery, hurdle rates, profit splits. If you've taken in passive capital without a Stage 5 model, you don't actually know what you've promised them.
A model you can use after close.
After close, the proforma becomes your asset management baseline. Year 1 actuals vs. Year 1 model. Where outperforming. Where underperforming. When to refinance. When to start the next one. The work doesn't end at the closing table.
"Placeholder testimonial — Giovanni underwrote our 8-unit acquisition with the same rigor we'd expect from an institutional shop. The model held up through diligence."
From the deal flow to the closing table.
Six floors. Each structural. Thesis at the foundation, ownership at the top.
Investment thesis & acquisition criteria.
What are you optimizing for? Cash flow, IRR over a 7-year hold, value-add upside, development play. What submarkets, what unit count, what LTV, what return hurdles. Once the criteria are clear, deal flow becomes filtering — not browsing.
Deal sourcing — on-market, off-market, pre-listing.
MLS multifamily, off-market relationships, pre-listing inventory through brokerage networks. The bias is toward properties most agents don't bring to scaling investors — small buildings priced for quick sales, owners ready to exit, properties with hidden development upside.
Stage 1 + Stage 2 model on every deal worth considering.
Stabilized proforma. 10-year DCF. Three IRRs. Sensitivity tables. Side-by-side comparison when you're considering more than one. The model goes back to you in a format you can actually read and use.
Offer strategy & negotiation.
Price, terms, contingencies, due diligence period, financing structure. Where to be aggressive, where to give in. Coordination with the seller's broker, the lender, escrow.
Due diligence — verify every assumption in the model.
Rent roll audit. Lease review. T-12 financials. Service contracts. Property inspection. Title review. Environmental if needed. Each finding either confirms a model assumption or updates it. The model goes back through with the new inputs.
Close — and the model becomes your asset management baseline.
After close, the proforma becomes the tracking baseline. Year 1 actuals vs. Year 1 model. Where you're outperforming. Where you're underperforming. The underwriting doesn't end at close. It becomes the operating playbook.
Bring me your next deal.
Send me an address — or your acquisition criteria — and I'll come back with a model. If the deal doesn't pencil, you'll know fast. If it does, you'll have a full underwrite to move on.
One deal.Then a model.
Acquisition representation is paid through the transaction — no separate retainer. The underwriting work on deals you consider — including the ones you walk away from — is part of the engagement.